Week 9_ SeeGod Meregini_ Choosing the right procedure in making decisions.

Problem Recognition/Evaluation

Decision making is often not an easy task to do especially when it would have a great impact to people, environment to mention a few. A friend of mine recently ask me to advise on how he would determine the right choice on important matters concerning big decisions he was faced with. Being in an environment where decisions are made every time, I was faced with a problem of correctly advising my friend on the right way to make major decisions.

Development of Feasible Alternatives/Solutions

I decided to solve this problem by evaluating 3 possible methods.

Alternative 1- Hunches.

 This type of method operates under the belief that “guts” feelings and intuition works best.

Alternative 2 – Engineering Economic Analysis Procedure

Here decisions are made using six to seven steps structured procedure in generating results.

It requires problem recognition, alternatives development, outcome development, criteria selection, analysis of alternative, selection of alternatives and post evaluation. The final results are always based on facts.

Alternative 3- Others  experiences

This alternative utilises the advices, feelings, and experiences of other people in making decisions.

Probable Outcomes of Alternatives / Solutions.

Alternative 1

This is very subjective and prone to making very big mistakes. It could also be used in making a right decision by chance but such “right” decision does not have facts and not easily accepted by others especially when other people are needed as partners to make success.

 Alternative 2

This method incorporates basic principles and involves several steps. Each step contributes information to one another in a related way. Unlike the first alternative, it creates open dialog where other people can make input because more than one person could be involved in making several small choices along the structured steps in order to arrive at a final decision.

Alternative 3

With no intention to debase the help from others, it can be said that without a structured way to collate information from well meaning experiences, advices and feelings of other people, the final choice in making a decision could very well end up in a disaster. This is true given the fact that people advices might come from numerous subjective reasons like sentiments, individual values, to mention a few.

Selection Criteria in determining the solution

1.    Easy sellable to potential partners.

2.    Easily documented for future similar decisions.

Analysis and Comparison of the alternatives

 Alternatives 1 and 3 do not meet both criteria above as “gut feelings” could be forgotten and other people advices could be denied when the outcome becomes bad.

Alternative 2 has been proven to work globally for making big decisions in big economic sectors and could easily be adapted to suit personal life choices.

Selection of Preferred Alternative

Based on the above analysis and criteria, I recommended ALTERNATIVE 2 to my friend and explained how each step worked.

 Performance Monitoring/Post Evaluation

In evaluating post results, I would assess how

·         successful my friend easily utilises alternative 2

·         he gets successful in his endeavoured goals

References

Sullivan, W. G., Wicks, E.M., & Koelling, C.P. (2009). Engineering economy and design process. In M.J. Horton (Ed.), Engineering economy (14^th ed.) (chapter 1.3) (pp. 27). New Jersey, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.

Sullivan, W. G., Wicks, E.M., & Koelling, C.P. (2009). Engineering economy and design process. In M.J. Horton (Ed.), Engineering economy (14^th ed.) (chapter 1.)  New Jersey, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc.